While Zardari's PPP has had a very hard time convincing the people of Pakistan on the governance front, the Sharif brothers have woken up from their stupor to mend their bastion, Says Saurabh Kumar Shahi
Sometime during early last week a confident looking aspirant from a religion-based political party in Pakistan walked with a swagger into the office of the Electoral Returning Officer (RO) in order to face a small interview, and then the result, that would have confirmed whether or not was he eligible to contest the upcoming Parliamentary elections; something that is enshrined in the Article 31 and 62 of the constitution. He clearly expected a couple of questions on his qualification and probably a tap on the wrist before he is approved. The RO instead asked him to say the 6th Kalima, which he promptly failed to recite. The zero-sum nature of the entire exercise notwithstanding, the incident says a lot about what we should expect in the coming elections. Whatever be the outcome, the 2013 Elections in Pakistan will be known for uneasy alliances and sheer hypocrisy of the main players.
Let's look at the prospects of the major players. The ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) can always claim that it managed to take the country through its most tumultuous period unscathed. That it became the first democratically elected government in Pakistan to complete its tenure is indeed an achievement. But it is also the sum total of its achievements. It has pretty little to show on other fronts.
However, PPP does command a total domination over its traditional Sindhi, Sareiki, poor, downtrodden and minority votes. In fact, in spite of its failure to save minorities from persecution during its tenure, it is basically a foregone conclusion that it will bag the majority of minority votes that are extremely relevant in eight out of 13 districts in Sindh and two districts in Punjab. It has also taken the battle right into the Punjabi heartlands of Nawaz Sharif's PML (N) by winning several seats in the by-polls. However, its governance has at best been pathetic. That is going to take a toll on its vote-bank, especially outside Sindh. The only cushion as of now appears to be the much touted Benazir Income Support Program (BISP).
“Even though Pakistan is now ranked as one of the most corrupt countries in the world, the BISP has avoided egregious waste and has mostly succeeded in reaching the intended targets. If the PPP does well in the May elections, it will be largely because of the success of this programme. "One of its main features was the empowerment of very poor women,” maintains Shahid Javed Burki, who has served variously as a caretaker finance minister and as a vice-president at the World Bank.
On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif and his PML (N) is visibly and evidently buoyant about their prospects. Punjab is Pakistan's most populous province and hence has 148 out of 272 seats up for grab. It is here that Nawaz Sharif wants to achieve the critical mass to come up as the single largest party. Nawaz Sharif's hold is primarily among the Punjabi conservative trading-class and his policies as Prime Minister have always been pro-development and pro-market. In fact, it can be safely said that from the world class Lahore-Islamabad-Peshawar motorways to the newly constructed Lahore Rapid Bus System, most of Pakistan's modern infrastructure has been the brainchild of PML (N). In sharp contrast, PPP's five years were marred by power, water, fuel and several other shortages.
Also, Nawaz has tweaked his constituency's traditional conservatism to suit his party's manifesto. So, while he is pretty comfortable doing tacit understanding with openly anti-Shia outfits such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, in tune with his rabid anti-Shia constituency in Southern Punjab; he has also made it clear that he will improve relationship with India and will take it to a new level. But he has a Pathan size problem in the form of Imran Khan.
When Imran Khan started his so-called Tsunami, his primary target were youth voters who account for close to 40 percent of the total electorate in these elections. Among the youths, he primarily targeted the urban kinds mostly concentrated in cities like Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Hyderabad and Bahawalpur. However, he soon realised that it will be close to impossible to make a mark in Karachi or Hyderabad that are too polarized on ethnic lines. So his obvious next target was Punjab. And that spelled trouble for PML (N). The historic Lahore rally by Khan did manage to put the world's focus on him and his party. However, since Khan and Murphy's Theory are so synonymous, no one was surprised when he and his party peaked prematurely and lost steam thereafter. Meanwhile the visibly rattled Nawaz and his Chief Minister brother Shahbaz were shaken from their stupor and actually started mobilizing the cadres. In fact, many believe, and rightly so, that it was the threat perception from Imran Khan that helped complete the Lahore Rapid Bus System in record time. As this story goes to print, Nawaz appears to have gained a substantial part of his lost territory. But another territory of his looks threatened too.
The Southern part of Punjab and Bahawalpur have always had a distinct culture from the more prosperous and progressive Northern Punjab. The discrimination in the allocation of funds and general neglect has turned Southern Punjab into a festering wound of ethnic-religious bigotry. The demand for a separate province is old. But it was only last year that the PPP government dangled them the carrot and actually organized a committee to look into the possibility. In complete contrast of how things operate in our part of world, the committee quickly did the survey and presented a final report, which was promptly adopted. Now PPP is hopeful that it will help them make strong inroads in the Southern Punjab region.
It will not be PPP and PML (N) alone who will battle for Southern Punjab seats. In the last year or so, Khan's PTI inducted some of the stalwarts from Southern Punjab in his party fold including ex-Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Rao Qaiser and Cheema brothers. Although there is no visible wave for his party there but each of the above mentioned names and others can bring in a couple of seats.
Sometime during early last week a confident looking aspirant from a religion-based political party in Pakistan walked with a swagger into the office of the Electoral Returning Officer (RO) in order to face a small interview, and then the result, that would have confirmed whether or not was he eligible to contest the upcoming Parliamentary elections; something that is enshrined in the Article 31 and 62 of the constitution. He clearly expected a couple of questions on his qualification and probably a tap on the wrist before he is approved. The RO instead asked him to say the 6th Kalima, which he promptly failed to recite. The zero-sum nature of the entire exercise notwithstanding, the incident says a lot about what we should expect in the coming elections. Whatever be the outcome, the 2013 Elections in Pakistan will be known for uneasy alliances and sheer hypocrisy of the main players.
Let's look at the prospects of the major players. The ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) can always claim that it managed to take the country through its most tumultuous period unscathed. That it became the first democratically elected government in Pakistan to complete its tenure is indeed an achievement. But it is also the sum total of its achievements. It has pretty little to show on other fronts.
However, PPP does command a total domination over its traditional Sindhi, Sareiki, poor, downtrodden and minority votes. In fact, in spite of its failure to save minorities from persecution during its tenure, it is basically a foregone conclusion that it will bag the majority of minority votes that are extremely relevant in eight out of 13 districts in Sindh and two districts in Punjab. It has also taken the battle right into the Punjabi heartlands of Nawaz Sharif's PML (N) by winning several seats in the by-polls. However, its governance has at best been pathetic. That is going to take a toll on its vote-bank, especially outside Sindh. The only cushion as of now appears to be the much touted Benazir Income Support Program (BISP).
“Even though Pakistan is now ranked as one of the most corrupt countries in the world, the BISP has avoided egregious waste and has mostly succeeded in reaching the intended targets. If the PPP does well in the May elections, it will be largely because of the success of this programme. "One of its main features was the empowerment of very poor women,” maintains Shahid Javed Burki, who has served variously as a caretaker finance minister and as a vice-president at the World Bank.
On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif and his PML (N) is visibly and evidently buoyant about their prospects. Punjab is Pakistan's most populous province and hence has 148 out of 272 seats up for grab. It is here that Nawaz Sharif wants to achieve the critical mass to come up as the single largest party. Nawaz Sharif's hold is primarily among the Punjabi conservative trading-class and his policies as Prime Minister have always been pro-development and pro-market. In fact, it can be safely said that from the world class Lahore-Islamabad-Peshawar motorways to the newly constructed Lahore Rapid Bus System, most of Pakistan's modern infrastructure has been the brainchild of PML (N). In sharp contrast, PPP's five years were marred by power, water, fuel and several other shortages.
Also, Nawaz has tweaked his constituency's traditional conservatism to suit his party's manifesto. So, while he is pretty comfortable doing tacit understanding with openly anti-Shia outfits such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, in tune with his rabid anti-Shia constituency in Southern Punjab; he has also made it clear that he will improve relationship with India and will take it to a new level. But he has a Pathan size problem in the form of Imran Khan.
When Imran Khan started his so-called Tsunami, his primary target were youth voters who account for close to 40 percent of the total electorate in these elections. Among the youths, he primarily targeted the urban kinds mostly concentrated in cities like Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Hyderabad and Bahawalpur. However, he soon realised that it will be close to impossible to make a mark in Karachi or Hyderabad that are too polarized on ethnic lines. So his obvious next target was Punjab. And that spelled trouble for PML (N). The historic Lahore rally by Khan did manage to put the world's focus on him and his party. However, since Khan and Murphy's Theory are so synonymous, no one was surprised when he and his party peaked prematurely and lost steam thereafter. Meanwhile the visibly rattled Nawaz and his Chief Minister brother Shahbaz were shaken from their stupor and actually started mobilizing the cadres. In fact, many believe, and rightly so, that it was the threat perception from Imran Khan that helped complete the Lahore Rapid Bus System in record time. As this story goes to print, Nawaz appears to have gained a substantial part of his lost territory. But another territory of his looks threatened too.
The Southern part of Punjab and Bahawalpur have always had a distinct culture from the more prosperous and progressive Northern Punjab. The discrimination in the allocation of funds and general neglect has turned Southern Punjab into a festering wound of ethnic-religious bigotry. The demand for a separate province is old. But it was only last year that the PPP government dangled them the carrot and actually organized a committee to look into the possibility. In complete contrast of how things operate in our part of world, the committee quickly did the survey and presented a final report, which was promptly adopted. Now PPP is hopeful that it will help them make strong inroads in the Southern Punjab region.
It will not be PPP and PML (N) alone who will battle for Southern Punjab seats. In the last year or so, Khan's PTI inducted some of the stalwarts from Southern Punjab in his party fold including ex-Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Rao Qaiser and Cheema brothers. Although there is no visible wave for his party there but each of the above mentioned names and others can bring in a couple of seats.
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