Wednesday, November 28, 2012

‘Shock and Awe’ is still alive....

Low Intensity Conflict and the shift from mass destruction to precision-strikes are changing paradigms

The development of ICBMs necessitated the development of a deterrent to thwart the threat of incoming missiles and thus was the advent of the doctrine of minimum deterrent of which the development of an ABM or an Anti Ballistic Missile System was a critical part. During the development of the now rather famous Patriot ABM system, USA realised that it’s far more easier to develop a ballistic missile than to develop something which can destroy it before it hits the target.

The Patriot ABM was not so successful in the initial stages, especially during Gulf War I, when it could not even take down the otherwise obsolete Iraqi Scuds. Later on, the US started working on a more advanced version of Patriot system as part of a larger ABM programme known as Theatre Missile Defence System and the National Missile Defence System, with the former being aimed at protecting US from short range missiles while the latter includes in its paradigm protecting US from all kinds of missiles including the ICBMs. This system, which is known as Theatre High Altitude Defence System (THAAD), is yet to be operational. Today, probably every country among the top league is working on some or the other kind of ABM system. While the Russian S-300, S-400, S-500 and the Galosh, Gazelle series of ABM has been extremely successful, the Israeli Arrow ABM system, which works in tandem with the Green Pine Radars, have been successful too. Countries like India too have been working on endo-atmospheric and exo-atmospheric air defence systems. In fact, the very concept of ABM is an extension of the ambitious Star Wars programme initiated by the Reagan Administration in 1980s to protect USA from Soviet ballistic missiles. But the development of the ABM system did not mitigate the threat perceptions as it gave rise to the concept of Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV), wherein an incoming ICBM would carry multiple warheads and before re-entering the atmosphere would disintegrate with each warhead going in a separate direction. The objective in this case was that even if some of the warheads would be destroyed by the incumbent’s ABM system, some others would still reach their designated destination. Thus, the doctrine of MAD continued with its prominence.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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