From Gorbachev to Yeltsin to Putin, every new Russian president has drastically altered his country’s relationship with the world. How will President Dmitry Medvedev change it again? Here are the clues that reveal what the Kremlin is thinking, and, more importantly, what it really wants.
once a superpower...
Some look at Russia and see a wounded enemy readying itself for another round. They interpret Moscow’s new assertiveness as a simple overreaction to the humiliation of the 1990s. These realists are quick to blame NATO expansion and Western triumphalism after the Soviet collapse for the direction of Russia’s current foreign policy. What Moscow learned in its ‘decade of humiliation’ is that the West respects strength, not shared values. On the other hand, the liberals who shaped the West’s policies toward Russia in the 1990s are not in a self-critical mood. They tend to believe that Putin’s foreign policy is simply a new incarnation of Moscow’s traditional imperial policies. Plus, though they may concede that the West has lost some of its ability to shape Russian politics, they insist that the West can still focus on the rule of law – if not full democracy. In their view, Russia’s gains in the international arena are temporary and the Putin miracle is a mirage. In short, even the experts are far from unanimous in divining the motives of Russia’s recent turn.
It would be easy to assume Russia is simply grasping power for power’s sake, or to conclude that just as “there are no ex-KGB officers,” there are also no ex-imperial powers. But to understand why Kremlin acts the way it does, one must first recognise how haunted it is by uncertainty & paranoia. How Russia thinks is closely linked to how Russia’s political elites feel. Moscow’s current strategy is not merely a reflection of its new economic power or a geopolitical change. It is the expression of the traumatic experience of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the omnipresent political vulnerability of the current regime.
once a superpower...
Some look at Russia and see a wounded enemy readying itself for another round. They interpret Moscow’s new assertiveness as a simple overreaction to the humiliation of the 1990s. These realists are quick to blame NATO expansion and Western triumphalism after the Soviet collapse for the direction of Russia’s current foreign policy. What Moscow learned in its ‘decade of humiliation’ is that the West respects strength, not shared values. On the other hand, the liberals who shaped the West’s policies toward Russia in the 1990s are not in a self-critical mood. They tend to believe that Putin’s foreign policy is simply a new incarnation of Moscow’s traditional imperial policies. Plus, though they may concede that the West has lost some of its ability to shape Russian politics, they insist that the West can still focus on the rule of law – if not full democracy. In their view, Russia’s gains in the international arena are temporary and the Putin miracle is a mirage. In short, even the experts are far from unanimous in divining the motives of Russia’s recent turn.
It would be easy to assume Russia is simply grasping power for power’s sake, or to conclude that just as “there are no ex-KGB officers,” there are also no ex-imperial powers. But to understand why Kremlin acts the way it does, one must first recognise how haunted it is by uncertainty & paranoia. How Russia thinks is closely linked to how Russia’s political elites feel. Moscow’s current strategy is not merely a reflection of its new economic power or a geopolitical change. It is the expression of the traumatic experience of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the omnipresent political vulnerability of the current regime.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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