Friday, November 30, 2012

Bring out the olive branches

Faced with political isolation, DMK is trying hard to woo PMK

Election time or not, Indian politicians must never forget basic arithmetic – addition and subtraction. And the octogenarian leader Karunanidhi is quite adept in this basic arithmetic? In a calculated move, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has tried to woo the estranged Pattali Makkali Katchi (PMK) to its fold again. Union Minister for surface and transport, T. R. Balu met Ramadoss, Chief of PMK at his residence and conveyed his leader’s message of rapprochement. Ramadoss has now been invited for a face-to-face interaction with Karunanidhi. Meanwhile Murasoli Maran was continuing his tirade against PMK, unmindful of his boss’s efforts to enter into peace with PMK! Never a dull moment in Indian politics, we must say!

Things are tough for the ruling DMK nowadays. It fought the 2004 parliament elections as a comparatively much stronger unit in Tamil Nadu with Congress, PMK, CPI, CPM, MDMK on its side. Even smaller party functions were like mammoth rallies with all these parties at one side. But over the years, the alliance eroded. Now the only remaining partner is Congress whose members are peeved at not getting a share in the power even after repeated appeals to Karunanidhi to accommodate them in the ministry. Also they are upping the ante against DMK for its support to Lankan Tamils. In the assembly, DMK with 96 members is running a minority government with outside support from the Congress. So it has been forced to toe the centre’s line as far the situation in Lanka is concerned. With the general elections nearing, DMK’s voice in the UPA is not as powerful as it was earlier. Karunanidhi is plagued with problems. With Ramadoss not immediately ready to extend support, the political scene for DMK is volatile.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Thursday, November 29, 2012

ZIMBABWE: POLITICAL CRISIS

Zimbabwe has failed to come out of chaos, thanks to its leaders

Currently some five million people in the country are in dire need of food aid and innumerable others need medical assistance. According to Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights (ZADHR), "Water supply is irregular or completely absent in most urban areas, burst sewage pipes continue to be left unattended and there is a lack of refuse collection." Furthermore, the state water company has gone bankrupt so it is unable to pay suppliers and engineering firms, while infrastructure and government services including education too are in a sordid state of affairs.

Shortage of funds has compelled Zimbabwe's Parliament to adjourn until November 11, as it can't sustain further operations. At this time all eyes are on these two leaders, as only these two people can bail out the nation. Guess they are expecting stars to fall from heaven!
 

Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Wednesday, November 28, 2012

‘Shock and Awe’ is still alive....

Low Intensity Conflict and the shift from mass destruction to precision-strikes are changing paradigms

The development of ICBMs necessitated the development of a deterrent to thwart the threat of incoming missiles and thus was the advent of the doctrine of minimum deterrent of which the development of an ABM or an Anti Ballistic Missile System was a critical part. During the development of the now rather famous Patriot ABM system, USA realised that it’s far more easier to develop a ballistic missile than to develop something which can destroy it before it hits the target.

The Patriot ABM was not so successful in the initial stages, especially during Gulf War I, when it could not even take down the otherwise obsolete Iraqi Scuds. Later on, the US started working on a more advanced version of Patriot system as part of a larger ABM programme known as Theatre Missile Defence System and the National Missile Defence System, with the former being aimed at protecting US from short range missiles while the latter includes in its paradigm protecting US from all kinds of missiles including the ICBMs. This system, which is known as Theatre High Altitude Defence System (THAAD), is yet to be operational. Today, probably every country among the top league is working on some or the other kind of ABM system. While the Russian S-300, S-400, S-500 and the Galosh, Gazelle series of ABM has been extremely successful, the Israeli Arrow ABM system, which works in tandem with the Green Pine Radars, have been successful too. Countries like India too have been working on endo-atmospheric and exo-atmospheric air defence systems. In fact, the very concept of ABM is an extension of the ambitious Star Wars programme initiated by the Reagan Administration in 1980s to protect USA from Soviet ballistic missiles. But the development of the ABM system did not mitigate the threat perceptions as it gave rise to the concept of Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV), wherein an incoming ICBM would carry multiple warheads and before re-entering the atmosphere would disintegrate with each warhead going in a separate direction. The objective in this case was that even if some of the warheads would be destroyed by the incumbent’s ABM system, some others would still reach their designated destination. Thus, the doctrine of MAD continued with its prominence.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Corridors of uncertainty

It's the policies... obsolete, superfluous & unpractical policies

Just six months back, observers were ga ga about how EU would be able to withstand the global recessionary phase. But it only seemed to be a matter of time for some detractors. Unfortunately, they were to be vindicated. Come August and EU member countries are falling prey to the recessionary monster. Denmark has become the first EU country technically under recession and the gloom looms large over other 14. The Eurozone is in middle of stagflation and the US crisis is not the culprit. Oil and exchange rates are pulling down the economy and there is nothing that the EU policies can do.

Experts believe that the EU is faring worse than the US. While the current downturn is not expected to last for long, there are structural deficiencies within EU, which will continue to pull it down.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Sunday, November 25, 2012

Torque n’ Roll...

The middle-class customer never had it so good when it comes to four-wheeled toys... But will the two wheeler giants give up easy?!

“I wish I had a car for just a day like this,” Ramesh Pawar fretted and fumed while running for the bus stand shade in the torrential rains. Pawar like various middle-class Indians has an aspiration to own a car but like others, he too has an income which is just about enough to cover his basic needs. Even though he has saved enough to be soon able to own a bike, Pawar still longs for a car; at least for his family. The want to own a car has never been so strong in India, especially when only 8 people out of 1,000 own a car here! The most hyped car of the season, the ultra cheap Tata Nano is also trying to persuade millions of motorcyclists to upgrade to their first car. Many have already taken the bait and are anxiously waiting for the affordable car to hit the market!

Enticed by the prospects, now Renault-Nissan, Toyota and even scooter giant Bajaj are all set to unleash their own versions. It is said that the stagnant growth in primary markets like US, Europe and Japan has forced major manufacturers to look at colossal opportunities available in the emerging markets. Here, even though lower real income (but a high aspiration value) calls for small affordable hatchbacks (which carry lower margins), anticipation of huge volumes are forcing many to rethink their strategies. According to Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, the under $10,000 vehicle market is likely to touch 18 million cars by 2010. The study also indicates that about 1.6 million motorcyclists will upgrade to a car over the next five years.

Higher standards of living might run in favour of these carmakers, but the rising fuel prices and interest rates may spoil the party in the long run. Playing on a different tune, players like Hero Honda and TVS for instance are taking the tried and tested route instead of diversifying.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Thursday, November 22, 2012

EXPENSIVE SCHEMES: EXCHEQUER

The debate (!) has gone on ad nauseum. For the sake of the aye-sayers and naysayers, B&E gives a final spin

Samajwadi Party General Secretary, Amar Singh, expectably acerbic towards the ruling coalition, commented, “This is one country where subsidies are given to super-rich and that too clandestinely.” The pragmatic approach would have been to implement at least some of the recommendations made by the Radhakrishna Committee on Rural Indebtedness. Instead of waiving off the entire loan, rescheduling – as proposed by the Radhakrishna Committee – would have surely been a better option. Mridul Saggar, Chief Economist, Kotak Institutional Equities, commented to B&E, “Even supply side structural initiatives are required!” Required more than expensive schemes, we should add.

In a similar manner, if the recent government salary recommendation fructifies, government employees would see a substantial rise in their salaries and of course, the country will see a mammoth rise in its wage budget as well (Rs.431.2 billion). An Asian Development Bank research now shows that India pays to its government staff much more than what it can afford. Worse, it comments, “The higher relative government pay rates cost the country in terms of economic growth, while the higher employment share does not seem to have any economic growth impact.” Cutting words that might have made more sense to Ms. upper crest Veronica Lodge nestled in Riverdale; sadly, not to our politicians, our Uncle Scrooge politicians...


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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His country’s relationship with the world

From Gorbachev to Yeltsin to Putin, every new Russian president has drastically altered his country’s relationship with the world. How will President Dmitry Medvedev change it again? Here are the clues that reveal what the Kremlin is thinking, and, more importantly, what it really wants.

once a superpower...

Some look at Russia and see a wounded enemy readying itself for another round. They interpret Moscow’s new assertiveness as a simple overreaction to the humiliation of the 1990s. These realists are quick to blame NATO expansion and Western triumphalism after the Soviet collapse for the direction of Russia’s current foreign policy. What Moscow learned in its ‘decade of humiliation’ is that the West respects strength, not shared values. On the other hand, the liberals who shaped the West’s policies toward Russia in the 1990s are not in a self-critical mood. They tend to believe that Putin’s foreign policy is simply a new incarnation of Moscow’s traditional imperial policies. Plus, though they may concede that the West has lost some of its ability to shape Russian politics, they insist that the West can still focus on the rule of law – if not full democracy. In their view, Russia’s gains in the international arena are temporary and the Putin miracle is a mirage. In short, even the experts are far from unanimous in divining the motives of Russia’s recent turn.

It would be easy to assume Russia is simply grasping power for power’s sake, or to conclude that just as “there are no ex-KGB officers,” there are also no ex-imperial powers. But to understand why Kremlin acts the way it does, one must first recognise how haunted it is by uncertainty & paranoia. How Russia thinks is closely linked to how Russia’s political elites feel. Moscow’s current strategy is not merely a reflection of its new economic power or a geopolitical change. It is the expression of the traumatic experience of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the omnipresent political vulnerability of the current regime.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Tuesday, November 20, 2012

WEST BENGAL: EDUCATION

...Or rather, English is Greek to us!

India, being an English speaking country, has an enviable position in the world. Today more and more people are opting for English medium schools to educate their children. South India especially has a lead in this case where 60% of English-medium schools are located in the country.

If Partha De, Education Minister, West Bengal succeeds in the implementation of the policy in Bengal, it will prove a boon for the lower and middle income groups. Surely education receives only 2.5% of total budgetary allocation (the figure for developed nations being 6-7.5%) and moves like these are critical...


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Mahathir’s closing gambit

While the former Malaysian Prime Minister has been out of power, he has support of the cadres

Malaysia could be in for weeks and months of political turmoil, instability and uncertainty about its future. For a long time, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed has been criticising his successor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. The war of words between the two has now resulted in a vertical split, with the 82-year-old Mahathri Mohamed quitting the ruling alliance United Malays National Organisation (UMNO). While resigning, Mohamed has levelled serious charges of incompetence, corruption and nepotism against Badawi. Analysts expect many members of UMNO to follow Mohamed and leave. This could jeopardise the future of UMNO that has been ruling Malaysia ever since the nation attained independence in 1957.

Mahathir has been waging a war of words against Abdullah for more than two years, repeatedly asking fellow party members to revolt against the alleged misrule of Badawi. It would now appear that Mahathir has finally burnt his boats with the political party which he ran with an iron fist for the 22 years that he served as Prime Minister of Malaysia. Of course, many senior leaders of UMNO think that the days of the 82-year-old leader calling the shots have gone. According to senior leader Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, the abrupt departure of Mohamed will hardly have any impact on the fortunes of the ruling alliance as he believes Mahathir Mohamed is a spent force who is acting petulantly because Badawi refuses to let Mohamed dictate terms.

Yet, Badawi and his associates will not find it easy to write off the ageing war horse. Mahathir Mohamed still enjoys the respect and admiration of many Malaysians who credit him for transforming the country from a poor, third world nation into a modern and prosperous economy. Many fondly recall the role played by the former Prime Minister during the East Asian financial crisis and melt down of 1997. Thanks to pragmatic steps taken by him, Malaysia and its citizens were the least affected by the crisis.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Sunday, November 18, 2012

INDIA INC.: BCG REPORT

The BCG report elaborates how MNCs struggle in RDEs like India, win-win partnerships are the best option

Moreover, the report does not highlight the kind of bottlenecks that MNCs often face in the local market at the government end, like extended periods of protectionism. For instance, the Indian telecom market has only recently allowed 74% FDI, which was earlier restricted to 49%; and retail FDI is still a burning issue; one of the reasons why Wal-Mart has made a very quiet entry. Meanwhile, most domestic giants have managed thus far to lobby successfully for their own gains at the cost of the foreign companies.

Nevertheless, MNCs realise the worth off the RDEs and are ready to take the risks involved. They scale up, stumble and may even fall flat, but they do not want to bail out so easily. “Multinationals are looking at every opportunity available. They are using the path of aggressive marketing, localisation, associations and tie-ups as few strategies to make space for themselves,” states Dungarwal.

Indeed, the best recourse in such instances becomes engaging in win-win partnerships with local firms, though there are examples of companies that have done very well without it (like Nokia, LG, HP and Pepsi). Interesting examples like Hero Honda, Bharti Wal-Mart (so dynamos are not necessarily anti-MNC!); Reliance Retail-Marks & Spencer, Tata-Fiat, Mahindra-Nissan, Emaar-MGF et al only go on to show the importance of such partnerships, which are tremendously beneficial to local players as well. After all, if the terms had been mutually beneficial, even the Spartans could have made up with the Persian invaders!


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Wednesday, November 14, 2012

It’s no ‘Bunk’

23% premium sounds logical for BII

It seems like banks have had enough of playing ‘cheerleaders’ in the M&As game. And if you thought the ABN Amro deal was all there was, Malaysian Banking Bhd (Maybank) is here to prove you wrong with its 55.7% stake-buy in Bank International Indonesia (BII) – a $1.5 billion deal announced on March 26, 2008. Also, with Maybank making a further open offer to other minority shareholders for the remaining 44.3% stake, the overall deal is expected to create a $2.7 billion dent in Maybank’s pocket.

Dato Desa, CEO, Maybank, justifies the deal as, “The strategic and financial rationale for the acquisition is extremely compelling. The acquisition will transform our growth prospects in Indonesia...” Surely, this is a huge step forward in Maybank’s strategy to regionalise its operations through investments in high-growth markets. The logic for the deal, too, sounds valid with margins in Malaysia drying-up fast due to competition intensifying by the day. However, Maybank’s stakeholders appeared critical as its share prices fell to a 3.5-year low post-announcement to 8.40 Ringgit.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Friday, November 9, 2012

SRI LANKA: PRESS FREEDOM

The newsmakers are the news

But Poddala Jayantha, secretary of the working journalists association, claimed that the authorities had failed to identify the assaulters, and instead indiscriminately targeted all Rupavahini staff. Soon after the Rupavahini incident unidentified goons launched a vicious midnight raid on the house of another journalist, Jayantha. It escaped no one that Jayantha was among those present in the Rupavahini compound when Silva, disheveled and humiliated, was escorted out of it. The reprisals are just now making as much news as the conflicting reports of casualties on either side.

A statement issued by Jacqueline Park, Asia Pacific director of the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ), said, “Sri Lanka's government must take concrete steps to ensure the safety and protection of journalists in the conduct of their work, starting with public reprimands for government members who verbally and physically attack the media, and give directives to local authorities to investigate and act on attacks against journalists across the island, including the attacks on Rupavahini staff.”


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Thursday, November 8, 2012

PRE-BUDGET

This year’s Budget may be finalised at 10, Janpath, and not 7, Race Course Road. The FM has a new team to help him balance political and economic pressures. By PRAMOD KUMAR

Gangopadhyay, who has a doctorate from Cornell University, earlier headed India Development Foundation, an organisation that aims to “help policy makers transform emerging economies into market-based societies.” For Bhide, this would be his first Budget since he became the revenue secretary last June. He was earlier the secretary in the disinvestment department. His task this year is easier, as the government is all set to overshoot the revenue collection targets, with direct taxes showing unprecedented buoyancy. The tax proposals are being worked out by the Tax Policy and Legislation Division (TPL) and Tax Research Unit (TRU) in the Central Board of Direct Taxes and Central Board of Excise and Customs. These too have new faces, barring TPL’s joint secretary, Arbind Modi, and TRU’s joint secretary, R. Sekar.

But expenditure secretary Mishra’s job is going to be tough this year. He will need to scrutinise the populist measures through the prism of economic viability as the UPA government heads into an election mode. His job has been made tougher as government spending will also need to adhere to targets under the fiscal responsibility and budgetary management Act. A prolific reader, Mishra is experienced in dealing with FDI and disinvestment policies. His green signal will enable an expenditure of over Rs.5 lakh crore, of which 80% will be to meet interest payments, subsidies, defence expenses, salaries of government officials and transfer to the states.

The secretary in the Department of Financial Services, Arun Ramanathan, will steer proposals for sectors like banking, insurance and pensions. His role is crucial as the government plans to dole out credit packages for sectors like agriculture. The cool-headed L.M. Vas, joint secretary (Budget) in the Department of Economic Affairs, is responsible for number-crunching in the Budget documents. Her team will prepare the government’s balance sheet. The Budget division puts together the Budget documents, which is printed in an underground printing press in the North Block.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Global ironing

With steel as the lynchpin of his global plans, Ratan Tata ensured a dramatic transformation of Tata Steel. By a. paul, s. nahata

Not being a historian and giving a commentary about any event that occurred in the year 1907 would have quite a tardy and drudging exercise, had it not been for a small little company called Tata Steel that was founded in that year. Come to think of it, for a better part of the century, this company remained in the shadows, lacking both hype and lustre, but still retaining its unique identity of being one of the most ethical and people-friendly companies the world had ever seen. But that, as Alice would have wonderously realised, was then... A 101 years later, the same company wins the B&E Most Global Indian Company Award! And the key credit for the same goes indisputably to India’s most global visionary, Ratan Naval Tata!

1962 was the year when this raring-to-go trainee joined the Tata Group! Through the subsequent years, he was shuffled between various companies within the group with the sole objective of making him completely conversant with the group’s operations. But it was perhaps the year 1971, which was the turning point in the history of Tatas, when the 34-year-old Ratan Tata was made the Director-in-Charge of Nelco, a top Tata group company. Exactly twenty years later, in 1991, he was made Chairman in the main holding company, Tata Sons Ltd., and in the other main group companies, namely Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Motors, Tata Teleservices, Tata Power, Indian Hotels and of course, the protagonist of our award, Tata Steel.

Ratan Tata’s visionary thought process has never been below outstanding benchmarks. Even competitors talk high of this head honcho. Aditya Mittal, CFO, Arcelor-Mittal, conversing exclusively with B&E, divulged, “I have great admiration for Mr. Tata. He is an entrepreneur with great vision.” But truly speaking, though Tata Steel has been exporting steel for many of those years (they formed their first structured global export cell way back in 1986), it was only in the past four years that the corporation’s global endeavours have attained noteworthy proportions.
 

Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Submarines...

It’s high time to have own DSRVs

William Arthur had once rightly said - “Wise are those who learn that the bottom-line doesn’t always have to be their top priority.” But ostensibly India fails to realise that. The bottom-line might be to win wars…but should India’s priority not be to protect the lives of those warriors who put their lives at stake for the motherland?

Doesn’t it beat the wits out of everyone that India does not yet have a Deep Sea Rescue Vehicle (DSRV)? The deals which were to materialise with Canada for the same, have fallen in the traps of corruption. It seems and the other deal with the US has also achieved no better status. And what’s more surprising is that these deals or for that matter no other deal of DSRV is getting the boost when it seems to be a foremost priority for India. And what happens in turn? A thing of not so past is that during the fleet level war games, the INS Sindhughosh collided with a merchant ship and the consequence was miraculously not so severe. There could be crisis situations where a DSRV might be of utmost requisite…well, when India can invest billions in outsourcing arm equipments, why then she is silent to answer to it?


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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Monday, November 5, 2012

The bull by the horn

SANJAY BASAK finds out how the West Bengal CM faltered, and almost tripped, while running on the reforms’ road. And now, he has decided to take the bull by the horn

The second hurdle for Buddhadeb was over Tata’s plan to set up a car factory in Singur, the first mega step to make Bengal an industry friendly state. Although Singur burnt due to local and political opposition, the CM backed the Tatas to the hilt. But the trade unions are still unhappy. Says M.K. Pandhe, CITU’s boss, “Our experience with the Tatas is not very pleasant. Outside Bengal, they are used to captive trade unions. We are not going to allow this in Bengal. If Tatas try a similar thing, we will not keep quiet.”

Pandhe refused to comment on the role of Buddhadeb in this issue, saying that “if I have to say anything about him, I will raise it at the party forum.” He, however, indicated that CITU wanted Bengal to be ‘workers’ friendly, not ‘industry’ friendly.” Recently, CITU submitted a memorandum on rampant “violation of labour laws in the state, not merely in the IT sector but also with regard to minimum wages and industrial disputes. Warns Pandhe, “Just because it’s a Left Front government, we will not keep quiet.”

Speaking to the media a few months ago, Buddhadeb said that “unfortunately, some of our friends fail to understand the situation. They don’t have the vision. They feel we have achieved enough.” The CM was referring to the attitudes of the trade unions, and electoral partners, who too have been against the CM’s “unilateral decisions on the issue of industrialisation.” The RSP MP, Abani Roy, flayed the CPI(M) for “ignoring the front partners.” He explains, “The blue print for industrialisation was expected to be discussed at a Left Front committee.”

However, Buddhadeb has continued to push ahead with his initiatives. Remarks a CPI(M) politburo member, “In recent times, West Bengal has managed to pool in big ticket investments in IT and steel sectors.” The CM has announced that Rs.90,000 crore would be invested in the state’s industrial sector to tackle the worsening unemployment problem. Pandhe agrees: “We realise that Bengal needs industries to tackle the issue. But social justice cannot be sacrificed.”


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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